Is Saudi Arabia about to collapse?

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IS acknowledges the fatal shooting in Orlando, through IS-affiliated news agency Amaq, reports Reuters. Earlier, police sources indicated to NBC News that Mateen could have phoned the American emergency number 911 and swore allegiance to the terror group IS before he shot at least 50 people to death in the gay club Pulse, writes DN. The attack is not uninteresting from a number of perspectives.

IS has thus definitively shown that they have embraced Al Queda’s strategy of terrorist attacks on the opponent’s territory and that they allow more autonomous cells or individuals to act on their own. IS / DAESH has previously been characterised by initiating outright conquest battles with the aim of controlling territory under strict hierarchical forms but Al Queda is characterised by a looser, more autonomous structure.

IS / DAESH is changing now. A change that exposes both the network as well as what takes place behind the United Islamic facade.

The fact that both IS / DAESH and Al Queda’s associated organisations have found an ideological kinship should be noted. Their relationship to the Saudi opposition. Those who know Saudi Arabia are well aware that the only thing that is more unpleasant to suffer in Saudi Arabia with its government, and in many cases, repressive methods, is what would happen if the Saudi opposition came to power. An opposition that would likely win a general election should they be allowed. This opposition includes Osama bin Laden’s close world of ideas. A world of ideas in which he, with some justification, sees the family Saud as corrupting Islam. Bin Laden also has strong support from central figures in the Swedish Muslim diaspora.

Screenshot of Fatima Doubakils twitter feed

Screenshot of Fatima Doubakils twitter feed

On the anniversary of the September 11 attacks in the United States, Fatima Doubakil showed, among others, her open support for the man who planned the attacks. Doubakil is the spokesperson for the Muslim Human Rights Committee in Sweden and belongs to the sphere that has the Minister of Culture´s, Mrs Alice Bah Kuhnke, ear for many years.

If the information on the government’s close ties and cooperation with people such as Doubakil through the Minister of Culture’s network was to reach the White House, it would probably mean a seriously stern talking to for Stefan Löfven in the future and dashing hopes to come into a diplomatic parlour. 9/11 is an open wound for the West in general and the United States in particular. And Osama bin Laden, its main symbol.

Forbes magazine is a seldom quoted newspaper in Sweden. On 20 January, appeared an article about Saudi Arabia that is not entirely uninteresting if we want to understand the tensions within Islam and the religion’s development. Saudi Arabia’s biggest threat today is an Iran that opposes the liberalisation of Shia Islam, and now, after the embargo has been lifted, a US that is shifting its emphasis in its relations with the Middle East. Iran is to become a closer partner than Saudi Arabia.

In MENA, i.e. the region defined as the Middle East and North Africa, there is a discussion at government level outside of Saudi Arabia, not without concern, about the development of events. Some high counsellors and ministers in other MENA-countries consider a collapse within five – ten years as probable. This is partly due to tensions and power struggles within the family of Saud, but also widespread corruption and the indulgence of the decadent living of the presumably more 7000 princes.

If Saudi Arabia collapses, and there are some signs that this may happen, it will mean that the ultra-orthodox Islamic interpretation of the Hanbali school of law, especially Salafism and Wahhabism, would become subjected to a strong centrifugal force, which risks spreading to the whole of Sunni Islam. Islam exploding from within. There are observers in the region who see even greater consequences.

We can think about possibilities regarding how the situation would develop. If the Saudi opposition and others who are near to Osama bin Laden’s world would come to power.

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Om författaren

Johan Westerholm
Johan Westerholm
Redaktör och ansvarig utgivare för Ledarsidorna.se. Fd underrättelse-officer med en oavslutad Master i politisk islam. Bott i Stockholm, Madrid, London och Boston men nu landat i Furusund.

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